Something landed in my inbox about Kentucky HB 757.
So I am reading about prediction markets.
You have probably heard of these things: they are
being used as an oracle of a sort. What are the odds that so-and-so will be
elected to the political office of such-and-such in whatever state this fall?
It is more than a poll, as people are wagering hard cash. I may tell a pollster
just about anything to wrap-up the call, but I am certainly not parting with
money.
I read that Kentucky will impose a 14.25% transaction
tax on “event contracts” beginning January 1, 2027.
I get the concept of an “event contract.” It is a
binary arrangement between two parties, with the contract resolving as either a
“yes” or a “no.” To me the perfect example is a sports game: either the Reds
will win or they will lose when they play the Mets on May 27. Bet your heart
out accordingly.
I would have thought that these transactions were
already being taxed.
Here is the point: they are not.
It is due to technology.
The sports betting you and I grew up with involved a
house, a handle and the house establishing the odds. The key here is that the
house (or DraftKings, FanDuel or whatever) received the bets, determined the
handle and odds, paid-out the winners, and kept the difference (the “juice”).
The above is called “betting,” folks. It was taboo in
major professional sports until the 2018 Supreme Court decision in Murphy v
NCAA. Those of us who have been around for a moment remember the NFL
barring Tony Romo from attending a fantasy football convention in Las Vegas,
which act seems quaint today as gambling commercials blare at us on football
Sundays. Fantasy was considered too close to betting, and sports betting would
diminish the integrity of the game. Fast forward and the NFL started partnering
with DraftKings and FanDuel in 2021. Heck,
they have probably had a baby by now.
The “new” sports betting is cribbing on territory
belonging to futures contracts: both are considered derivatives and both are
regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Let’s say you and I bet on the May 27 Reds game.
Here is Robinhood:

This is easy: I will pay you 49 cents on the dollar
that the Reds will win. If the Reds win. I win a dollar. If the Reds lose, I
lose 49 cents. There will also be commissions and such, because … of course.
The fiction here is that you and I are not betting. We
are instead “investing” in “financial instruments” subject to the CFTC.
Granted, one of us will win and the other lose as the “event contracts” settle,
but we are not “betting.” We are competing against each other on future events. We
are not betting against a house, as that would describe a sportsbook. Nothing
to see here, officer. Have a good day.
Hit somebody’s wallet and they will deny the very law
of gravity.
Almost 90% of these “financial instruments” are tied
to sports betting.
This my shocked face:

The effect of this is to remove the prediction markets
from the routine and customary state gambling regulatory apparatus.
Which means that state taxes are taking a hit as money
leaves their sportsbooks.
Enter Kentucky.
Since 2023 Kentucky has levied a 9.75% tax for
on-track wagers and 14.25% for online and mobile wagers. The last time I checked, the horse racing
industry was contributing upwards of $200 million annually to state tax
revenue. You can bet your bippy Kentucky is going to protect it.
The new 14.25% tax on prediction markets is the same
as for other online betting.
And the tax will apply whether one bets via DraftKings
or DraftKings Predictions. Or FanDuel or FanDuel Predicts.
Yep, same companies but two platforms.
This is new frontier in state taxation, and you can be
certain there will be litigation before the matter is settled. I suspect this will go to the Supreme Court
eventually.
The issue affects all states, of course. We limited our
discussion today to Kentucky for one nontechnical reason: I live here.