Kentucky To Tax Prediction Markets

 

Something landed in my inbox about Kentucky HB 757.

So I am reading about prediction markets.

You have probably heard of these things: they are being used as an oracle of a sort. What are the odds that so-and-so will be elected to the political office of such-and-such in whatever state this fall? It is more than a poll, as people are wagering hard cash. I may tell a pollster just about anything to wrap-up the call, but I am certainly not parting with money.

I read that Kentucky will impose a 14.25% transaction tax on “event contracts” beginning January 1, 2027.

I get the concept of an “event contract.” It is a binary arrangement between two parties, with the contract resolving as either a “yes” or a “no.” To me the perfect example is a sports game: either the Reds will win or they will lose when they play the Mets on May 27. Bet your heart out accordingly.

I would have thought that these transactions were already being taxed.

Here is the point: they are not.

It is due to technology.

The sports betting you and I grew up with involved a house, a handle and the house establishing the odds. The key here is that the house (or DraftKings, FanDuel or whatever) received the bets, determined the handle and odds, paid-out the winners, and kept the difference (the “juice”).

The above is called “betting,” folks. It was taboo in major professional sports until the 2018 Supreme Court decision in Murphy v NCAA. Those of us who have been around for a moment remember the NFL barring Tony Romo from attending a fantasy football convention in Las Vegas, which act seems quaint today as gambling commercials blare at us on football Sundays. Fantasy was considered too close to betting, and sports betting would diminish the integrity of the game. Fast forward and the NFL started partnering with DraftKings and FanDuel in 2021.  Heck, they have probably had a baby by now.

The “new” sports betting is cribbing on territory belonging to futures contracts: both are considered derivatives and both are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Let’s say you and I bet on the May 27 Reds game.

Here is Robinhood:

This is easy: I will pay you 49 cents on the dollar that the Reds will win. If the Reds win. I win a dollar. If the Reds lose, I lose 49 cents. There will also be commissions and such, because … of course.

The fiction here is that you and I are not betting. We are instead “investing” in “financial instruments” subject to the CFTC. Granted, one of us will win and the other lose as the “event contracts” settle, but we are not “betting.” We are competing against each other on future events. We are not betting against a house, as that would describe a sportsbook. Nothing to see here, officer. Have a good day.

Hit somebody’s wallet and they will deny the very law of gravity.  

Almost 90% of these “financial instruments” are tied to sports betting.

This my shocked face: 

           

The effect of this is to remove the prediction markets from the routine and customary state gambling regulatory apparatus.

Which means that state taxes are taking a hit as money leaves their sportsbooks.

Enter Kentucky.

Since 2023 Kentucky has levied a 9.75% tax for on-track wagers and 14.25% for online and mobile wagers.  The last time I checked, the horse racing industry was contributing upwards of $200 million annually to state tax revenue. You can bet your bippy Kentucky is going to protect it.

The new 14.25% tax on prediction markets is the same as for other online betting.

And the tax will apply whether one bets via DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions. Or FanDuel or FanDuel Predicts.

Yep, same companies but two platforms.

This is new frontier in state taxation, and you can be certain there will be litigation before the matter is settled.  I suspect this will go to the Supreme Court eventually.

The issue affects all states, of course. We limited our discussion today to Kentucky for one nontechnical reason: I live here.

 

Tax Preparer Gives Gambler A Losing Hand

 

I am looking at a bench opinion.

The tax issue is relatively straightforward, so the case is about substantiation. To say that it went off the rails is an understatement.

Let us introduce Jacob Bright. Jacob is in his mid-thirties, works in storm restoration and spends way too much time and money gambling. The court notes that he “recognizes and regrets the negative effect that gambling has had on his life.”

He has three casinos he likes to visit: two are in Minnesota and one in Iowa. He does most of his sports betting in Iowa and plays slots and table games in Minnesota.

He reliably uses a player’s card, so the casinos do much of the accounting for him.

Got it. When he provides his paperwork to his tax preparer, I expect two things:

(1)  Forms W-2G for his winnings

(2)  His player’s card annual accountings

The tax preparer adds up the W-2Gs and shows the sum as gross gambling receipts. Then he/she will cross-check that gambling losses exceed winnings, enter losses as a miscellaneous itemized deduction and move on. It is so rare to see net winnings (at least meaningful winnings) that we won’t even talk about it.

COMMENT: Whereas the tax law changed in 2018 to do away with most miscellaneous itemized deductions, gambling losses survived. One will have to itemize, of course, to claim gambling losses.   

Here starts the downward cascade:

Mr. Bright hired a return preparer who was recommended to him, but he did not get what or whom he expected. Rather than the recommended preparer, the return preparer’s daughter actually prepared his return.”

OK. How did this go south, though?

The return preparer reported that Mr. Bright was a professional gambler ….”

Nope. Mind you, there are a few who will qualify as professionals, but we are talking the unicorns. Being a professional means that you can deduct losses in excess of winnings, thereby possibly creating a net operating loss (NOL). An NOL can offset other income (up to a point), income such as one’s W-2. The IRS is very, very reluctant to allow someone to claim professional gambler status, and the case history is decades long. Jacob’s preparer should have known this. It is not a professional secret.

Jacob did not review the return before signing. For some reason the preparer showed over $240 grand of gross gambling receipts. I added up the information available in the opinion and arrived at little more than $110 grand. I have no idea what she did, and Jacob did not even realize what she did. Perhaps she did not worry about it as she intended the math to zero-out.

She should not have done this.

The IRS adjusted the initial tax filing to disallow professional gambler status.

No surprise.

Jacob then filed an amended return to show his gambling losses as miscellaneous itemized deductions. He did not, however, correct his gross gambling winnings to the $110 grand.

The IRS did not allow the gambling losses on the amended return.

Off to Tax Court they went.

There are several things happening:

(1)  The IRS was arguing that Jacob did not have adequate documentation for his losses. Mind you, there is some truth to this. Casino reports showed gambling activity for months with no W-2Gs (I would presume that he had no winnings, but that is a presumption and not a fact). Slot winnings below $1,200 do not have to be reported, and he gambled on games other than slots. Still, the casino reports do provide some documentation. I would argue that they provide substantiation of his minimum losses.

(2)  Let’s say that the IRS behaved civilly and allowed all the losses on the casino reports. That is swell, but the tax return showed gambling receipts of $240 grand. Unless the casino reports showed losses of (at least) $240 grand, Jacob still had issues.

(3)  The Court disagreed with the IRS disallowing all gambling deductions. It looked at the casino reports, noting that each was prepared differently. Still, it did not require advanced degrees in mathematics to calculate the losses embedded in each report. The Court calculated total losses of slightly over $191 grand. That relieved a lot – but not all – of the pressure on Jacob.

(4)  Jacob did the obvious: he told the Court that the $240 grand of receipts was a bogus number. He did not even know where it came from.

(5)  The IRS immediately responded that it was being whipsawed. Jacob reported the $240 grand number, not the IRS. Now he wanted to change it. Fine, said the IRS: prove the new number. And don’t come back with just numbers reported on W-2Gs. What about smaller winnings? What about winnings from sports betting? If he wanted to change the number, he was also responsible for proving it.

The IRS had a point. It was being unfair and unreasonable but also technically correct.

Bottom line: the IRS was not going to permit Jacob to reduce his gross receipts number without some documentation. Since all he had was the casino reports, the result was that Jacob could not change the number.

Where does this leave us? I see $240 – $191 = $49 grand of bogus income.

My takeaway is that we have just discussed a case of tax malpractice. That is what lawyers are for, Jacob.

Our case this time was Jacob Bright v Commissioner, Docket No. 0794-22.